Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Should the Dbacks keep Saunders?

On Friday night, Dave Cameron put up this tweet:

"The D'Backs will never do it, but Joe Saunders deserves to be non-tendered this winter."

This was posted shortly after Saunders got shelled for 7 runs (4 earned) over 2 1/3 innings, giving up 5 hits, walking 4, and striking out 1.


When reading Cameron's tweet, my immediate reaction was agreement as Joe Saunders has been overrated his whole career as an "innings eater" and fans that viewed him as being a good pitcher generally looked at his win/loss record from 2008 and 2009 to justify their viewpoint. However, should the Dbacks tender Joe Saunders for 2011? I want to look at this from the "statheads", the Dbacks front office, and the fans perspective.


Considering that his salary for this year is $3.75mil and how he's pitched this year, he could be due about $5mil in his 2nd year of arbitration eligibility.

According to FanGraphs, Saunders' WAR (Wins Above Replacement) each year and his value has been since he joined the rotation full-time:


2008 - 2.8, $12.6mil
2009 - 1.2, $5.4mil
2010 - 1.1, $4.2mil


Looking at Saunders' career, it seems like he was a good pitcher in 2008 and average in 2009 and 2010. However, a large part of his performance in 2008 was luck based as his BABIP was a low .267. In 2009 and 2010, Saunders' BABIP were more in line with his career average of .295 (.290 in 2009 and .306 in 2010). So looking at his home run, walk, and strike out rates from 2008 (his first full year in the rotation) to 2010, he has performed like a below average major league starter. However, even below average major league starter's have value as a pitcher that performs above a 1.0 WAR has a value of between $3.8 to $4.50mil in any given year. It would be reasonable to assume that given Joe Saunders track record, that he will perform at the level of a $5mil pitcher from a value sense.


However, if the Dbacks do not retain Saunders, could they use that $5mil towards signing another free agent starting pitcher? Looking at the crop of free agent pitchers, there are a few interesting names such as Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, and Jake Westbrook (I've left out Cliff Lee for obvious reasons). However, those pitchers will probably command more money and years than the Dbacks would be willing to commit.

Something else to consider is if the Dbacks front office were to decide to non-tender Saunders, they would look badly in the eyes of the fan base and the media for in essence releasing a player that was a major component in the Dan Haren deal. For people that follow prospects and minor league baseball such as myself, Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs are definitely the more exciting and interesting names in the deal. However, the media and fans view Joe Saunders as the main player in this deal and I believe there would be a major backlash if Saunders were not retained for next year. This would indicate to the fan base that the Dbacks are indeed rebuilding instead of trying to contend next year, which would lead to even further diminished interest in the team.


In my view, even though I am not much of a fan of Joe Saunders, but considering that the Haren trade is still fresh in the minds of the fan base, it would be a big blow to public perception if the Dbacks decided not to retain Saunders. Factoring that in, as well as the likelihood that Saunders will perform at the level of $5mil pitcher based on past performance, the Dbacks should retain Saunders for 2011.

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