Last night saw the 8th quality start in a row by Daniel Hudson since joining the Dbacks in the Edwin Jackson trade. To say he's exceeded expectations would be an understatement as he hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his starts while pitching 7 innings or more in 7 starts, and 6 innings in the other. Should Dbacks fans continue to expect great things from Hudson?
Daniel Hudson was a 5th round pick in the 2008 draft out of Old Dominion, and may have gone that low due to a so-so final year at Old Dominion. Hudson had a high 4.70 ERA along with 15 home runs given up in only 92 innings. However, he also did have a reasonable walk rate (2.8BB/9IP) along with a good strike out rate (10.5K/9IP).
After being drafted by the White Sox, he had a very interesting 2009 season that saw him start off in Low A and move through every level of the minors, culminating in a September call-up with the big club. Hudson had some success pitching out of the bullpen as well as starting two games, but with the depth of the White Sox rotation, he started 2010 back in Triple A. Hudson continued to have success in 2010 in Triple A, with a 3.47 ERA and an excellent strike out rate (10.4K/9IP), along with a moderate walk rate (3.0BB/9IP).
When Jake Peavy went down, Hudson was called up to the big club again, but struggled his second time up. In the three games he started for the White Sox, Hudson's ERA was 6.32, which was partly due to a high BABIP and partly due to a very high walk rate (6.32BB/9IP).
Now, there seem to be differing views on Hudson as a pitcher and where his true talent level is. Keith Law wrote after the Edwin Jackson trade that he could see Daniel Hudson developing into a solid #4 pitcher while John Sickels gives Hudson a B+ rating. With his recent success, I'm sure Dbacks fans have hopes that Hudson meets Sickel's expectations more than Law's
I'm not too familiar with the scouting aspect of pitchers, but when I look at the numbers, there are more positives I see that lead me to believe that he can and will be a solid #3 starter with the upside of a decent #2. When he was drafted, scouts had Daniel Hudson's pitching repertoire as having a low 90's fastball, above average change-up, and a fringe/developing slider. According to pitch f/x, Hudson's average fastball this year is 92.6mph, topping out at 94.7mph. That may not seem all that impressive, but what I find encouraging is improvement in the strength and stamina of his fastball. According to this scouting report from last year: http://soxmachine.com/2009/08/15/first-impression-dan-hudson/
Hudson's fastball sat between 90-93 in the first 3 innings, but fell to 89-90 for the final 4 frames. According to Pitch f/x, Hudson's fastball now sits mostly between 92-94. His stamina has improved as well as in last nights game, it averaged 93 in the 7th inning while topping out at 93.6. He also threw his slider more often than usual in last nights game, resulting in a few swinging strikes, which he lacked in previous games.
Hudson has shown with his ability to strike out major leaguers (8.1K/9IP), while limiting walks (1.7BB/9IP), using a solid fastball and above average changeup. Hopefully we'll see his slider improve, as most major league starters are not able to get by with just two pitches unless they are of plus quality (ie. Randy Johnson and his fastball/slider combo). I look forward to watching Hudson develop into an effective #2 starter based on his improved strength and stamina, the further development of his slider, and his relatively young age.
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